Category: Uncategorized
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Accumulation of risk
How is it possible that big-name clubs suddenly experience a bad season, or even face relegation? In part, this can be attributed to bad luck. However, poor seasons typically result from the accumulation of risks. There are many different types of risks, and clubs need to be mindful of all of them. Yet, most clubs…
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The personality of Sven Mislintat (type 4, SSLC)
Thanks to the insights of David of www.directoroffootball.com we determined that Sven Mislintat has a type #4 brain, the SSLC type. GPT agrees with us: Sven Mislintat exhibits characteristics that are associated with Type 4. He is an idealist who holds strong personal principles, seeks recognition for unique contributions, is passionate about individual expression, socially…
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Showcase: Niklas Dorsch
Niklas Dorsch is a defensive midfielder of Heidenheim, playing in 2. Bundesliga. Dorsch has been on our radar for the last couple of years and with only one year left at Heidenheim, he is an interesting player to follow. He plays for Germany U21. We think he would do well in 1. Bundesliga. For that…
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Football data to Bayesian team ranking
Without live matches I found time to work on my third iteration of my Bayesian model to turn football data from any data provicer into Football Behavior Management (FBM) data. To be clear: we only accept correlation above 80% and R2 above 60%. So far all 7 competitions checked have a correlation of at least…
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Showcase: Noa Lang
Noa Lang first gotten on our radar January 22nd 2018, almost two years ago. This is his FBM contribution chart at that time of that match: Compared to his most recent FBM contribution chart, the only difference is that Noa Lang today has a higher transitioning & build up then two years ago: Given Noa…
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Showcase Sergiño Dest
Bayesian statistics, like FBM uses, needs way less data than before you can draw valid conclusions. That makes Bayesian statistics ideal for scanning youth players for talents. Sergiño Dest is a great showcase in this regard. According to Ronald Koeman, the current manager of the Dutch national team, one and a half a year ago…
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Our prediction of the Eredivisie Winter Champion 19/20
As there is an 80% correlation between FBM Team Score and the ranking in the Eredivisie and a 90% correlation between FBM Team Score and points scored in the Eredivisie, we can predict what the ranking of the clubs and the points they score. As teams that risks to be regulated can buy players that…
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Our prediction of the Eredivisie Winter Champion 19/20 – Preview
Please note: this is a preview of our prediction that we will make once the transfer window is closed September 2nd 2019. Yet, we don’t expect much to change between this preview and the final prediction. I will update this article once the transfer window is closed. As there is an 80% correlation between FBM…
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How successful are transfers in the Premier League?
Everyone has an opinion on the quality of the transfers of their favorite club in the Premier League. But can we actually measure successful transfers? Here is the table of successful and unsuccessful transfers in the Premier League. The explanation follows below: Club Successful transfers Unsuccessful transfers Losses per player Losses per year Profit per…
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Feyenoord needs to defend their #3 spot rather than go for #2 or #1
A huge club like Feyenoord ought to always play for the championship. Nevertheless, the distance between Feyenoord and PSV (currently #2) and Ajax (currently #1) proofs to be to big. In this article I react to the wonderful article “Wat brengt de nabije toekomst voor Feyenoord?” by Enrico Raho. Not to criticize, but to show…