How Heracles found Dalmau using FBM statistics

Dalmau, the Spanish striker, of Heracles, a Dutch Eredivisie club, has been a huge success in his first season in the Eredivisie. He became the number three topscorer in the Eredivisie with 19 goals scored. Quite an achievement for a striker who came to Heracles without a transfer fee being paid and who played for a very reasonable salary.

Topscorers in Dutch Eredivisie season 2018/2019

Heracles, the Dutch Eredivisie club, wondered why they didn’t have a Fran Sol like striker playing for their team. Willem II, one of the competitors of Heracles, found the Spanish striker and he turned out to be quite successful for Willem II. Heracles asked us to find them a Fran Sol like striker.

Through our network we were pointed toward Dalmau. We analyzed him using our proprietary FBM statistics (see here for an explanation) and presented him to Heracles. The scouting of Heracles already had Dalmau on their list of possible targets as he was a Spanish striker whose contacted ended in the summer of 2018. During the meeting we showed Heracles the following contribution chart of Dalmau and Heracles decided to pursue this opportunity. Their technical staff flew to Spain to watch Dalmau live. Within weeks a deal was struck and the rest is history.

Athletic Club Bilbao 2 vs Villarreal II 2018-05-20 20:00:00 (1-3)

As is the case with 90% of the 11.000 players in our database, Dalmau’s contribution chart today is pretty much the same as it was one year ago. Normally, that would not be significant because most graphs are created using averages and averages only change a little through time. But we limit the use of averages as much as possible as an average often distorts a clear view of the player. FBM statistics is very sensitive. In most cases data from 6 matches ago has no influence on the chart of the most recent match. Nevertheless, Dalmau, as most other players, produces the same chart each and every match as can be seen of his most recent chart here:

Heracles 1 vs Excelsior 1 2019-05-12 14:30:00 (4-5)

Basically both charts indicate that it is highly likely that Dalmau strengthens the team overall and the attack of the team, but it is highly unlikely that Dalmau strengthens the defense and transitioning of the team. Normally, that wouldn’t be good, but in the case of a striker we ignore all of that because the only real task for a striker is to score. Preferably, 19 times as in the case of Dalmau.

In April 2018 we calculated that Dalmau would have a replacement value of 1.75 million euro for Heracles at the end of the 18/19 season. In the summer of 2019 Dalmau transfered to FC Utrecht for a transfer fee of 700.000 euro and Dessers (a player valued at 1 million) transfered from FC Utrecht to Heracles.

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